Abstract

Urban areas in small islands are highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change and related hazards, underscoring the need for sustainable, resilient practices. This study investigates the potential impacts of urbanization on precipitation and temperature in the Colombo Metropolitan Area of Sri Lanka. To explore temperature and precipitation trends, this research employs diverse modeling and methodological strategies, including the precipitation-temperature relationship, super-scaling, structural equation modeling, and dynamic structural equation modeling. The findings suggest that ongoing urbanization is influencing both temperature and precipitation patterns. Results show relative impacts of different land-use changes on the regional climate, highlighting the complex relationships among vegetation, urbanization, and climate dynamics. A significant relationship is observed between urbanization and both temperature and precipitation, indicating that urbanization is a crucial driver of local environmental change affecting regional climate and land cover. The results can be utilized to support the development of adaptive measures aligned with sustainable development goals. This research supports and addresses two Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), specifically Goal 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities, and Goal 13: Climate Action. By incorporating regional climatic influences in future research, the analysis could further enhance understanding of these interactions and strengthen adaptation strategies for sustainable development.