Abstract

This study examined relationships between running load, possession metrics, and team success (points per game (PPG)), across five English Premier League (EPL) seasons (2019/20-2023/24). Comparison of running and possession demands when facing top six (T6) versus lower-ranked (7-20) opponents was also explored. Analysis of 1675 matches, using Second Spectrum® optical tracking system, to measure running load variables (total distance (TD), high-intensity distance (HID), high-speed running (HSR), sprint distance (SprD), expressed as totals, in-possession per minute (TIP), out-of-possession per minute (TOOP), and TOOP/TIP ratios. Pearson's correlations assessed relationships between running load, possession, ball-in-play (BiP), and PPG. Differences between T6 and lower-ranked teams were assessed using Wilcoxon rank-sum tests. PPG correlated very largely with possession (r = .74, p < 0.001), and largely with TOOP/TIP ratios and BiP (r = .50-.65, p < 0.001). Moderate positive correlations with PPG were observed with TOOP metrics (r = .34-.45, p < 0.001), while SprD showed a small positive relationship (r = .25, p=0.01). TIP metrics correlated negatively with PPG (r = -.22 to -.57, p = 0.001-0.023). Against T6 teams, clubs ran more in total and TIP (ES = 0.11-0.41, p < 0.02), but less TOOP and lower TOOP/TIP ratios (ES = -0.11 to -0.54, p < 0.006), alongside reduced possession (ES = -0.96 to -1.04, p < 0.001) and PPG (ES = -0.61 to -0.66, p < 0.001). EPL success is very largely associated with possession and greater out-of-possession running, while in-possession running relates negatively. Only SprD correlated with PPG, suggesting total running load is less influential than possession and defensive running efficiency.