Abstract

Coastal areas are among the most popular tourist destinations globally but are increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Previous studies have assessed climatic suitability for tourism by quantifying ideal and unacceptable conditions based on beach user behavior and survey responses. Tourism contributes ~17% to the Fiji Islands’ GDP, highlighting its strong economic dependence on the sector, particularly coastal tourism. However, there is limited research assessing the impacts of climate change on tourism climatic comfort. To address this gap, the present study evaluates the holiday climate index (HCI) for urban and beach destinations across the Fiji Islands. The analysis incorporates both historical years (2014–2024) and projected climatic scenarios (2025–2050) and (2071–2100) under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Bias‐corrected outputs from global circulation models (GCMs) downscaled through regional climate models (RCMs) were used to derive monthly temperature, humidity, cloud cover, precipitation, and wind speed. HCI scores were computed for both winter and summer seasons for urban and beach tourism. Results indicate that most coastal and urban locations in the Fiji Islands currently experience favorable climatic conditions for tourism, with winter HCI scores ranging from 78 to 92 (“Very Good” to “Excellent”) and summer scores ranging from 70 to 85 (“Good” to “Very Good”). Under future climate scenarios, average HCI scores are projected to decline by 3%–8% across several regions during 2025–2050, particularly during the summer season. However, projections indicate variability in future climatic suitability, with some regions showing reduced suitability during 2025–2050, while some improvements in HCI scores are projected in 2071–2100, particularly under RCP 8.5. These findings provide a scientific basis for climate‐informed tourism planning in the Fiji Islands and highlight the importance of incorporating climate projections into long‐term tourism strategies.